2007.12178
How to obtain the redshift distribution from probabilistic redshift estimates
Malz, Hogg
A trustworthy estimate of the redshift distribution $n(z)$ is crucial for using weak gravitational lensing and large-scale structure of galaxy catalogs to study cosmology. Spectroscopic redshifts for the dim and numerous galaxies of next-generation weak-lensing surveys are expected to be unavailable, making photometric redshift (photo-$z$) probability density functions (PDFs) the next-best alternative for comprehensively encapsulating the nontrivial systematics affecting photo-$z$ point estimation. The established stacked estimator of $n(z)$ avoids reducing photo-$z$ PDFs to point estimates but yields a systematically biased estimate of $n(z)$ that worsens with decreasing signal-to-noise, the very regime where photo-$z$ PDFs are most necessary. We introduce Cosmological Hierarchical Inference with Probabilistic Photometric Redshifts (CHIPPR), a statistically rigorous probabilistic graphical model of redshift-dependent photometry, which correctly propagates the redshift uncertainty information beyond the best-fit estimator of $n(z)$ produced by traditional procedures and is provably the only self-consistent way to recover $n(z)$ from photo-$z$ PDFs. We present the $\texttt{chippr}$ prototype code, noting that the mathematically justifiable approach incurs computational expense. The CHIPPR approach is applicable to any one-point statistic of any random variable, provided the prior probability density used to produce the posteriors is explicitly known; if the prior is implicit, as may be the case for popular photo-$z$ techniques, then the resulting posterior PDFs cannot be used for scientific inference. We therefore recommend that the photo-$z$ community focus on developing methodologies that enable the recovery of photo-$z$ likelihoods with support over all redshifts, either directly or via a known prior probability density.
2007.12795
Photo-z outlier self-calibration in weak lensing surveys
Schaan, Ferraro, Seljak
Calibrating photometric redshift errors in weak lensing surveys with external data is extremely challenging. We show that both Gaussian and outlier photo-z parameters can be self-calibrated from the data alone. This comes at no cost for the neutrino masses, curvature and dark energy equation of state $w_0$, but with a 65% degradation when both $w_0$ and $w_a$ are varied. We perform a realistic forecast for the Vera Rubin Observatory (VRO) Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) 3x2 analysis, combining cosmic shear, projected galaxy clustering and galaxy - galaxy lensing. We confirm the importance of marginalizing over photo-z outliers. We examine a subset of internal cross-correlations, dubbed "null correlations", which are usually ignored in 3x2 analyses. Despite contributing only $\sim$ 10% of the total signal-to-noise, these null correlations improve the constraints on photo-z parameters by up to an order of magnitude. Using the same galaxy sample as sources and lenses dramatically improves the photo-z uncertainties too. Together, these methods add robustness to any claim of detected new Physics, and reduce the statistical errors on cosmology by 15% and 10% respectively. Finally, including CMB lensing from an experiment like Simons Observatory or CMB-S4 improves the cosmological and photo-z posterior constraints by about 10%, and further improves the robustness to systematics. To give intuition on the Fisher forecasts, we examine in detail several toy models that explain the origin of the photo-z self-calibration. Our Fisher code LaSSI (Large-Scale Structure Information), which includes the effect of Gaussian and outlier photo-z, shear multiplicative bias, linear galaxy bias, and extensions to $\Lambda$CDM, is publicly available at https://github.com/EmmanuelSchaan/LaSSI .
2007.12814
Low-cost precursor of an interstellar mission
Heller, et al
The solar photon pressure provides a viable source of thrust for spacecraft in the solar system. Theoretically it could also enable interstellar missions, but an extremely small mass per cross section area is required to overcome the solar gravity. We identify aerographite, a synthetic carbon-based foam with a density of 0.18 kg/m^3 (15,000 times more lightweight than aluminum) as a versatile material for highly efficient propulsion with sunlight. A hollow aerographite sphere with a shell thickness eps_shl = 1 mm could go interstellar upon submission to the solar radiation in interplanetary space. Upon launch at 1 AU from the Sun, an aerographite shell with eps_shl = 0.5 mm arrives at the orbit of Mars in 60 d and at Pluto's orbit in 4.3 yr. Release of an aerographite hollow sphere, whose shell is 1 micrometer thick, at 0.04 AU (the closest approach of the Parker Solar Probe) results in an escape speed of nearly 6900 km/s and 185 yr of travel to the distance of our nearest star, Proxima Centauri. The infrared signature of a meter-sized aerographite sail could be observed with JWST up to 2 AU from the Sun, beyond the orbit of Mars. An aerographite hollow sphere with eps_shl = 100 micrometer and a radius of 1 m (5 m) weighs 230 mg (5.7 g) and has a 2.2 g (55 g) mass margin for interstellar escape. The payload margin is ten times the mass of the spacecraft, whereas the payload on chemical interstellar rockets is typically a thousandth of the weight of the rocket. Simplistic communication would enable studies of the interplanetary medium and a search for the suspected Planet Nine, and would serve as a precursor mission to alpha Centauri. We estimate prototype developments costs of 1 million USD, a price of 1000 USD per sail, and a total of <10 million USD including launch for a piggyback concept with an interplanetary mission.
2007.13989
Local interstellar spectra and solar modulation of cosmic ray electrons and positrons
Zhu, et al
Low energy cosmic rays are modulated by the solar activity when they propagation in the heliosphere, leading to ambiguities in understanding their acceleration at sources and propagation in the Milky Way. By means of the precise measurements of the $e^-$, $e^+$, $e^-+e^+$, and $e^+/(e^-+e^+)$ spectra by AMS-02 near the Earth, as well as the very low energy measurements of the $e^-+e^+$ fluxes by Voyager-1 far away from the Sun, we derive the local interstellar spectra (LIS) of $e^-$ and $e^+$ components individually. Our method is based on a non-parametric description of the LIS of $e^-$ and $e^+$ and a force-field solar modulation model. We then obtain the evolution of the solar modulation parameters based on the derived LIS and the monthly fluxes of cosmic ray $e^-$ and $e^+$ measured by AMS-02. {\bf To better fit the monthly data, additional renormalization factors for $e^-$ and $e^+$ have been multiplied to the modulated fluxes.} We find that the inferred solar modulation parameters of positrons are in good agreement with that of cosmic ray nuclei, and the time evolutions of the solar modulation parameters of electrons and positrons differ after the reversal of the heliosphere magnetic field polarity, which shows clearly the charge-sign dependent modulation effect.
2007.14402
Very high redshift quasars and the rapid emergence of super-massive black holes
Kroupa, et al
The observation of quasars at very high redshift such as Poniuaena is a challenge for models of super-massive black hole (SMBH) formation. This work presents a study of SMBH formation via known physical processes in star-burst clusters formed at the onset of the formation of their hosting galaxy. While at the early stages hyper-massive star-burst clusters reach the luminosities of quasars, once their massive stars die, the ensuing gas accretion from the still forming host galaxy compresses its stellar black hole (BH) component to a compact state overcoming heating from the BH--BH binaries such that the cluster collapses, forming a massive SMBH-seed within about a hundred Myr. Within this scenario the SMBH--spheroid correlation emerges near-to-exactly. The highest-redshift quasars may thus be hyper-massive star-burst clusters or young ultra-compact dwarf galaxies (UCDs), being the precursors of the SMBHs that form therein within about 200 Myr of the first stars. For spheroid masses <10^9.6 Msun a SMBH cannot form and instead only the accumulated nuclear cluster remains. The number evolution of the quasar phases with redshift is calculated and the possible problem of missing quasars at very high redshift is raised. SMBH-bearing UCDs and the formation of spheroids are discussed critically in view of the high redshift observations. A possible tension is found between the high star-formation rates (SFRs) implied by downsizing and the observed SFRs, which may be alleviated within the IGIMF theory and if the downsizing times are somewhat longer.
2007.14869
Space Project for Astropyhsical and Cosmological Exploration (SPACE), an ESA stand-alone mission and a possible contribution to the Origins Space Telescope
Burgarella, et al
We propose a new mission called Space Project for Astrophysical and Cosmological Exploration (SPACE) as part on the ESA long term planning Voyage 2050 programme. SPACE will study galaxy evolution at the earliest times, with the key goals of charting the formation of the heavy elements, measuring the evolution of the galaxy luminosity function, tracing the build-up of stellar mass in galaxies over cosmic time, and finding the first super-massive black holes (SMBHs) to form. The mission will exploit a unique region of the parameter space, between the narrow ultra-deep surveys with HST and JWST, and shallow wide-field surveys such as Roman Space Telescope and EUCLID, and should yield by far the largest sample of any current or planned mission of very high redshift galaxies at z > 10 which are sufficiently bright for detailed follow-up spectroscopy. Crucially, we propose a wide-field spectroscopic near-IR + mid-IR capability which will greatly enhance our understanding of the first galaxies by detecting and identifying a statistical sample of the first galaxies and the first SMBH, and to chart the metal enrichment history of galaxies in the early Universe - potentially finding signatures of the very first stars to form from metal-free primordial gas. The wide-field and wavelength range of SPACE will also provide us a unique opportunity to study star formation by performing a wide survey of the Milky Way in the near-IR + mid-IR. This science project can be enabled either by a stand-alone ESA-led M mission or by an instrument for an L mission (with ESA and/or NASA, JAXA and other international space agencies) with a wide-field (sub-)millimetre capability at wavelength > 500 microns.
2007.14989
Analystic marginalization of $N(z)$ uncertainties in tomographic galaxy surveys
Hadzhiyska, et al
We present a new method to marginalize over uncertainties in redshift distributions, $N(z)$, within tomographic cosmological analyses applicable to current and upcoming photometric galaxy surveys. We allow for arbitrary deviations from the best-guess $N(z)$ governed by a general covariance matrix describing the uncertainty in our knowledge of redshift distributions. In principle, this is marginalization over hundreds or thousands of new parameters describing potential deviations as a function of redshift and tomographic bin. However, by linearly expanding the theory predictions around a fiducial model, this marginalization can be performed analytically, resulting in a modified data covariance matrix that effectively downweights the modes of the data vector that are more sensitive to redshift distribution variations. We showcase this method by applying it to the galaxy clustering measurements from the Hyper Suprime-Cam first data release. We illustrate how to marginalize over sample-variance of the calibration sample and a large general systematic uncertainty in photometric estimation methods, and explore the impact of priors imposing smoothness in the redshift distributions.
2007.15026
Dark Energy Survey Year 1 results: constraining baryonic physics in the Universe
Huang, et al
Measurements of large-scale structure are interpreted using theoretical predictions for the matter distribution, including potential impacts of baryonic physics. We constrain the feedback strength of baryons jointly with cosmology using weak lensing and galaxy clustering observables (3$\times$2pt) of Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 data in combination with external information from baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and Planck cosmic microwave background polarization. Our baryon modeling is informed by a set of hydrodynamical simulations that span a variety of baryon scenarios; we span this space via a Principal Component (PC) analysis of the summary statistics extracted from these simulations. We show that at the level of DES Y1 constraining power, one PC is sufficient to describe the variation of baryonic effects in the observables, and the first PC amplitude ($Q_1$) generally reflects the strength of baryon feedback. With the upper limit of $Q_1$ prior being bound by the Illustris feedback scenarios, we reach $\sim 20\%$ improvement in the constraint of $S_8=\sigma_8(\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5}=0.788^{+0.018}_{-0.021}$ compared to the original DES 3$\times$2pt analysis. This gain is driven by the inclusion of small-scale cosmic shear information down to 2.5$\arcmin$, which was excluded in previous DES analyses that did not model baryonic physics. We obtain $S_8=0.781^{+0.014}_{-0.015}$ for the combined DES Y1+Planck EE+BAO analysis with a non-informative $Q_1$ prior. In terms of the baryon constraints, we measure $Q_1=1.14^{+2.20}_{-2.80}$ for DES Y1 only and $Q_1=1.42^{+1.63}_{-1.48}$ for DESY1+Planck EE+BAO, allowing us to exclude one of the most extreme AGN feedback hydrodynamical scenario at more than $2 \sigma$.
2007.15632
KiDS-1000 cosmology: multi-probe weak gravitational lensing and spectroscopic galaxy clustering constraints
Heymans, et al
We present a joint cosmological analysis of weak gravitational lensing observations from the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-1000), with redshift-space galaxy clustering observations from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS), and galaxy-galaxy lensing observations from the overlap between KiDS-1000, BOSS and the spectroscopic 2-degree Field Lensing Survey (2dFLenS). This combination of large-scale structure probes breaks the degeneracies between cosmological parameters for individual observables, resulting in a constraint on the structure growth parameter $S_8=\sigma_8 \sqrt{\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3} = 0.766^{+0.020}_{-0.014}$, that has the same overall precision as that reported by the full-sky cosmic microwave background observations from Planck. The recovered $S_8$ amplitude is low, however, by $8.3 \pm 2.6$ % relative to Planck. This result builds from a series of KiDS-1000 analyses where we validate our methodology with variable depth mock galaxy surveys, our lensing calibration with image simulations and null-tests, and our optical-to-near-infrared redshift calibration with multi-band mock catalogues and a spectroscopic-photometric clustering analysis. The systematic uncertainties identified by these analyses are folded through as nuisance parameters in our cosmological analysis. Inspecting the offset between the marginalised posterior distributions, we find that the $S_8$-difference with Planck is driven by a tension in the matter fluctuation amplitude parameter, $\sigma_8$. We quantify the level of agreement between the CMB and our large-scale structure constraints using a series of different metrics, finding differences with a significance ranging between $\sim\! 3\,\sigma$, when considering the offset in $S_{8}$, and $\sim\! 2\,\sigma$, when considering the full multi-dimensional parameter space.
2007.15633
KiDS-1000 cosmology: cosmic shear constraints and comparison between two point statistics
Asgari, et al
We present cosmological constraints from a cosmic shear analysis of the fourth data release of the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-1000), doubling the survey area with nine-band optical and near-infrared photometry with respect to previous KiDS analyses. Adopting a spatially flat $\Lambda$CDM model, we find $S_8 = \sigma_8 (\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5} = 0.759^{+0.024}_{-0.021}$ for our fiducial analysis, which is in $3\sigma$ tension with the prediction of the Planck Legacy analysis of the cosmic microwave background. We compare our fiducial COSEBIs (Complete Orthogonal Sets of E/B-Integrals) analysis with complementary analyses of the two-point shear correlation function and band power spectra, finding results to be in excellent agreement. We investigate the sensitivity of all three statistics to a number of measurement, astrophysical, and modelling systematics, finding our $S_8$ constraints to be robust and dominated by statistical errors. Our cosmological analysis of different divisions of the data pass the Bayesian internal consistency tests, with the exception of the second tomographic bin. As this bin encompasses low redshift galaxies, carrying insignificant levels of cosmological information, we find that our results are unchanged by the inclusion or exclusion of this sample.
2007.15635
KiDS-1000 catalogue: redshift distributions and their calibration
Hildebrandt, et al
We present redshift distribution estimates of galaxies selected from the fourth data release of the Kilo-Degree Survey over an area of $\sim1000$ deg$^2$ (KiDS-1000). These redshift distributions represent one of the crucial ingredients for weak gravitational lensing measurements with the KiDS-1000 data. The primary estimate is based on deep spectroscopic reference catalogues that are re-weighted with the help of a self-organising-map (SOM) to closely resemble the KiDS-1000 sources, split into five tomographic redshift bins in the photometric redshift range $0.1<z_\mathrm{B}\le1.2$. Sources are selected such that they only occupy that volume of 9-dimensional magnitude-/colour-space that is also covered by the reference samples (`gold' selection). Residual biases in the mean redshifts determined from this calibration are estimated from mock catalogues to be $\lesssim0.01$ for all five bins with uncertainties of $\sim 0.01$. This primary SOM estimate of the KiDS-1000 redshift distributions is complemented with an independent clustering redshift approach. After validation of the clustering-$z$ on the same mock catalogues and a careful assessment of systematic errors, we find no significant bias of the SOM redshift distributions with respect to the clustering-$z$ measurements. The SOM redshift distributions re-calibrated by the clustering-$z$ represent an alternative calibration of the redshift distributions with only slightly larger uncertainties in the mean redshifts of $\sim 0.01-0.02$ to be used in KiDS-1000 cosmological weak lensing analyses. As this includes the SOM uncertainty, clustering-$z$ are shown to be fully competitive on KiDS-1000 data.
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