2007.01308
TDCOSMO III: dark matter substructure meets dark energy -- the effects of (sub)haloes on strong-lensing measurements of $H_0$
Gilman, Birrer, Treu
Time delay cosmography uses the arrival time delays between images in strong gravitational lenses to measure cosmological parameters, in particular the Hubble constant $H_0$. The lens models used in time delay cosmography omit dark matter subhalos and line-of-sight halos because their effects are assumed to be negligible. We explicitly quantify this assumption by analyzing realistic mock lens systems that include full populations of dark matter subhalos and line-of-sight halos, applying the same modeling assumptions used in the literature to infer $H_0$. We base the mock lenses on six quadruply-imaged quasars that have delivered measurements of the Hubble constant, and quantify the additional uncertainties and/or bias on a lens-by-lens basis. We show that omitting dark substructure does not bias inferences of $H_0$. However, perturbations from substructure contribute an additional source of random uncertainty in the inferred value of $H_0$ that scales as the square root of the lensing volume divided by the longest time delay. This additional source of uncertainty, for which we provide a fitting function, ranges from $0.6 - 2.4\%$. It may need to be incorporated in the error budget as the precision of cosmographic inferences from single lenses improves, and sets a precision limit on inferences from single lenses.
2007.01679
The thermal and gravitational energy densities in the large-scale structure of the Universe
Chiang, Makiya, Komatsu, Ménard
As cosmic structures form, matter density fluctuations collapse gravitationally and baryonic matter is shock-heated and thermalized. We therefore expect a connection between the mean gravitational potential energy density of collapsed halos, $\Omega_{W}^{\rm halo}$, and the mean thermal energy density of baryons, $\Omega_{\rm th}$. These quantities can be obtained using two fundamentally different estimates: we compute $\Omega_{W}^{\rm halo}$ using the theoretical framework of the halo model which is driven by dark matter statistics, and measure $\Omega_{\rm th}$ using the Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) effect which probes the mean thermal pressure of baryons. First, we derive that, at the present time, about 90% of $\Omega_{W}^{\rm halo}$ originates from massive halos with $M>10^{13}\,M_\odot$. Then, using our measurements of the SZ background, we find that $\Omega_{\rm th}$ accounts for about 80% of the kinetic energy of the baryons available for pressure in halos at $z\lesssim 0.5$. This constrains the amount of non-thermal pressure, e.g., due to bulk and turbulent gas motion sourced by mass accretion, to be about $\Omega_{\rm non-th}\simeq 0.4\times 10^{-8}$ at $z=0$.
2007.01844
KiDS-1000 Methodology: Modeling and inference for joint weak gravitational lensing and spectroscopic galaxy clustering analysis
Joachimi, et al
We present the methodology for a joint cosmological analysis of weak gravitational lensing from the fourth data release of the ESO Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-1000) and galaxy clustering from the partially overlapping BOSS and 2dFLenS surveys. Cross-correlations between galaxy positions and ellipticities are incorporated into the analysis, developing a hybrid model of non-linear scales that blends perturbative and non-perturbative approaches, and assessing signal contributions by astrophysical effects. All weak lensing signals are measured consistently via Fourier-space statistics that are insensitive to the survey mask and display low levels of mode mixing. The calibration of photometric redshift distributions and multiplicative gravitational shear bias is updated, and a more complete tally of residual calibration uncertainties is propagated into the likelihood. A dedicated suite of more than 20000 mocks is used to assess the performance of covariance models and to quantify the impact of survey geometry and spatial variations of survey depth on signals and their errors. The sampling distributions for the likelihood and the $\chi^2$ goodness-of-fit statistic are validated, with proposed changes to calculating the effective number of degrees of freedom. Standard weak lensing point estimates on $S_8=\sigma_8\,(\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3)^{1/2}$ derived from its marginal posterior are easily misinterpreted to be biased low, and an alternative estimator and associated credible interval are proposed. Known systematic effects pertaining to weak lensing modelling and inference are shown to bias $S_8$ by no more than 0.1 standard deviations, with the caveat that no conclusive validation data exist for models of intrinsic galaxy alignments. Compared to the previous KiDS analyses, $S_8$ constraints are expected to improve by 20% for weak lensing alone and by 29% for the joint analysis. [abridged]
2007.01845
KiDS-1000 catalogue: weak gravitational lensing shear measurements
Giblin, et al
2007.01846
Testing KiDS cross-correlation redshifts with simulations
van den Busch, et al
Measuring cosmic shear in wide-field imaging surveys requires accurate knowledge of the redshift distribution of all sources. The clustering-redshift technique exploits the angular cross-correlation of a target galaxy sample with unknown redshifts and a reference sample with known redshifts, and is an attractive alternative to colour-based methods of redshift calibration. We test the performance of such clustering redshift measurements using mock catalogues that resemble the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS). These mocks are created from the MICE simulation and closely mimic the properties of the KiDS source sample and the overlapping spectroscopic reference samples. We quantify the performance of the clustering redshifts by comparing the cross-correlation results with the true redshift distributions in each of the five KiDS photometric redshift bins. Such a comparison to an informative model is necessary due to the incompleteness of the reference samples at high redshifts. Clustering mean redshifts are unbiased at $|\Delta z|<0.006$ under these conditions. The redshift evolution of the galaxy bias can be reliably mitigated at this level of precision using auto-correlation measurements and self-consistency relations, and will not become a dominant source of systematic error until the arrival of Stage-IV cosmic shear surveys. Using redshift distributions from a direct colour-based estimate instead of the true redshift distributions as a model for comparison with the clustering redshifts increases the biases in the mean to up to $|\Delta z|\sim0.04$. This indicates that the interpretation of clustering redshifts in real-world applications will require more sophisticated (parameterised) models of the redshift distribution in the future. If such better models are available, the clustering-redshift technique promises to be a highly complementary alternative to other methods of redshift calibration.
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