Day 1697

Thursday.


2004.13768
The rotation curve, mass distribution and dark matter content of the Mily Way fro classical Cepheids
Ablimit, et al

With the increasing numbers of large stellar survey projects, the quality and quantity of excellent tracers to study the Milky Way is rapidly growing, one of which is the classical Cepheids. Classical Cepheids are high precision standard candles with very low typical uncertainties ($<$ 3\%) available via the mid-infrared period-luminosity relation. About 3500 classical Cepheids identified from OGLE, ASAS-SN, Gaia, WISE and ZTF survey data have been analyzed in this work, and their spatial distributions show a clear signature of Galactic warp. Two kinematical methods are adopted to measure the Galactic rotation curve in the Galactocentric distance range of $4\lesssim R_{\rm GC} \lesssim 19$ kpc. Gently declining rotation curves are derived by both the proper motion (PM) method and 3-dimensional velocity vector (3DV) method. The largest sample of classical Cepheids with most accurate 6D phase-space coordinates available to date are modeled in the 3DV method, and the resulting rotation curve is found to decline at the relatively smaller gradient of ($-1.33\pm0.1$) ${\rm km\,s^{-1}\,kpc^{-1}}$. Comparing to results from the PM method, a higher rotation velocity (($232.5\pm0.9$) ${\rm km\,s^{-1}}$) is derived at the position of Sun in the 3DV method. The virial mass and local dark matter density are estimated from the 3DV method which is the more reliable method, $M_{\rm vir} = (0.822\pm0.052)\times 10^{12}\,M_\odot$ and $\rho_{\rm DM,\odot} = 0.33\pm0.03$ GeV ${\rm cm^{-3}}$, respectively.

2004.13811

Localizing merging black holes with gravitational-wave lensing

Hannuksela, et al

We report here a method that can precisely localize a merging black hole. The current gravitational-wave localization methods rely mainly on merging neutron stars or other sources with electromagnetic counterparts. However, the scientific targets of merging black holes are entirely different and they allow us to probe exciting properties such as higher-order modes, high redshifts, and the strong field of gravity. Unfortunately, the lack of an electromagnetic counterpart and the poor sky localization accuracies of the current gravitational-wave detectors make it generally difficult to localize a merging black hole precisely. However, lensed gravitational waves, whose first observation is predicted in this decade, could allow us to search for the source through locating its similarly lensed host galaxy. Specifically, a dedicated follow-up of the sky localization of the lensed gravitational wave could allow us to identify the lensed host galaxy, and to reconstruct its lens profile. Unfortunately, uniquely identifying the correct host galaxy is challenging, because there are hundreds and sometimes thousands of other lensed galaxies within the sky area spanned by the gravitational-wave observation. However, by combining the gravitational-wave information with the lens reconstructions of all the lensed galaxy candidates, we show that one can localize quadruply lensed waves to one or at most a few galaxies with the LIGO/Virgo/Kagra network. Using simulated data, we demonstrate that once the lensed host is identified, the gravitational-wave source can be localized within the host galaxy, and the system can be used to measure the Hubble constant.

2004.14192

Searching for a Black Hole n the Outer Solar System

Witten

There are hints of a novel object ("Planet 9") with a mass $5-10$ $M_\oplus$ in the outer Solar System, at a distance of order 500 AU. If it is a relatively conventional planet, it can be found in telescopic searches. Alternatively, it has been suggested that this body might be a primordial black hole (PBH). In that case, conventional searches will fail. A possible alternative is to probe the gravitational field of this object using small, laser-launched spacecraft, like the ones envisioned in the Breakthrough Starshot project. With a velocity of order $.001~c$, such spacecraft can reach Planet 9 roughly a decade after launch and can discover it if they can report timing measurements accurate to $10^{-5}$ seconds back to Earth.

Day 1696

Wednesday.

2004.13623
Can the cosmological dilation explain the skewness in the GRB duration distribution?
Tarnopolski

No.

Day 1695

Tuesday.

2004.11921
Electron density structure of the Local Galactic Disk
Ocker, et al

Pulsar dispersion measures (DMs) have been used to model the electron density of the interstellar medium (ISM) above and below the Galactic plane as a plane-parallel medium, despite significant scatter in the DM-distance distribution and strong evidence for inhomogeneities in the ISM. We use a sample of pulsars with independent distance measurements to evaluate a model of the local ISM that incorporates turbulent fluctuations, clumps, and voids in the electron density. The latter two components are required because $\sim 1/3$ of the lines of sight are discrepant from a strictly plane parallel model. A likelihood analysis for smooth components of the model yields a scale height $z_0=1.57^{+0.15}_{-0.14}$ kpc and a mid-plane density $n_0=0.015 \pm 0.001$ cm$^{-3}$. The scatter in the DM-distance distribution is dominated by clumps and voids but receives significant contributions from a broad spectrum of density fluctuations, such as a Kolmogorov spectrum. The model is used to identify lines of sight with outlier values of DM. Three of these pulsars, J1614$-$2230, J1623$-$0908, and J1643$-$1224, lie behind known HII regions, and the electron density model is combined with H$\alpha$ intensity data to constrain the filling factors and other substructure properties of the HII regions (Sh 2-7 and Sh 2-27). Several pulsars also exhibit enhanced DM fluctuations that are likely caused by their lines of sight intersecting the superbubble GSH 238+00+09.


2004.12981
On the importance of lensing for galaxy clustering in photometric and spectroscopic surveys
Jelic-Cizmek, et al

We study the importance of gravitational lensing in the modelling of the number counts of galaxies. We confirm previous results for photometric surveys, showing that lensing cannot be neglected in a survey like LSST since it would infer a significant shift of cosmological parameters. For a spectroscopic survey like SKA2, we find that neglecting lensing in the monopole, quadrupole and hexadecapole of the correlation function also induces an important shift of parameters. For $\Lambda$CDM parameters, the shift is moderate, of the order of $0.6\sigma$ or less. However, for a model-independent analysis, that measures the growth rate of structure in each redshift bin, neglecting lensing introduces a shift of up to $2.3\sigma$ at high redshift. Since the growth rate is directly used to test the theory of gravity, such a strong shift would wrongly be interpreted as the breakdown of General Relativity. This shows the importance of including lensing in the analysis of future surveys. On the other hand, for a survey like DESI, we find that lensing is not important, mainly due to the value of the magnification bias parameter of DESI, $s(z)$, which strongly reduces the lensing contribution at high redshift. We also propose a way of improving the analysis of spectroscopic surveys, by including the cross-correlations between different redshift bins (which is neglected in spectroscopic surveys) from the spectroscopic survey or from a different photometric sample. We show that including the cross-correlations in the SKA2 analysis does not improve the constraints. On the other hand replacing the cross-correlations from SKA2 by cross-correlations measured with LSST improves the constraints by 10 to 20 %. Interestingly, for $\Lambda$CDM parameters, we find that LSST and SKA2 are highly complementary, since they are affected differently by degeneracies between parameters.

Day 1694

Monday.

2004.11397
Impacts of dust grains accelerated by supernovae on the Moon
Siraj, Loeb

There is evidence that ejecta from nearby supernovae have rained down on Earth in the past. Supernovae can accelerate pre-existing dust grains in the interstellar medium to speeds of $\sim 0.01 \mathrm{\;c}$. We investigate the survival and impact of dust grains from supernovae on the moon, finding that supernova dust grains can form detectable tracks with widths of $\sim 0.01 - 0.07 \mathrm{\; \mu m}$ and depths of $\sim 0.1 - 0.7 \mathrm{\; mm}$ in lunar rocks. These tracks could potentially shed light on the timings, luminosities, and directions of nearby supernovae.

2004.11387

Optimal void finders in weak lensing maps

Davies, et al

Cosmic voids are a key component of the large-scale structure that contain a plethora of cosmological information. Typically, voids are identified from the underlying galaxy distribution, which is a biased tracer of the total matter field. Previous works have shown that 2D voids identified in weak lensing maps -- weak lensing voids -- correspond better to true underdense regions along the line of sight. In this work, we study how the properties of weak lensing voids depend on the choice of void finder, by adapting several popular void finders. We present and discuss the differences between identifying voids directly in the convergence maps, and in the distribution of weak lensing peaks. Particular effort has been made to test how these results are affected by galaxy shape noise, which is a dominant source of noise in weak lensing observations. By studying the signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) for the tangential shear profile of each void finder, we find that voids identified directly in the convergence maps have the highest SNR but are also the ones most affected by galaxy shape noise. Troughs are least affected by noise, but also have the lowest SNR. The tunnel algorithm, which identifies voids in the distribution of weak lensing peaks, represents a good compromise between finding a large tangential shear SNR and mitigating the effect of galaxy shape noise.

2004.11388

Ultra-diffuse galaxies in the Coma cluster: probing their origin and AGN occupation fraction

Kovacs, et al

Ultra-diffuse galaxies (UDGs) exhibit low surface brightness, but their optical extent is comparable to Milky Way-type galaxies. Due to their peculiar properties, it remains ambiguous whether UDGs are the descendants of massive galaxies or they are puffed-up dwarf galaxies. In this work, we explore a population of 404 UDGs in the Coma cluster to study their origin and AGN occupation fraction. To constrain the formation scenario of UDGs, we probe the X-ray emission originating from diffuse gas and from the population of unresolved low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs) residing in globular clusters (GCs). It is expected that both the luminosity of the hot gas and the number of globular clusters and hence the luminosity from GC-LMXBs are proportional to the total dark matter halo mass. We do not detect statistically significant emission from the hot gas or from GC-LMXBs. The upper limits on the X-ray luminosities suggest that the bulk of the UDGs reside in low-mass dark matter halos, implying that they are genuine dwarf galaxies. This conclusion agrees with our previous results obtained for isolated UDGs, arguing that UDGs are a homogenous population of galaxies. To probe the AGN occupation fraction of UDGs, we cross-correlate the position of detected X-ray sources in the Coma cluster with the position of UDGs. We identify two UDGs that have a luminous X-ray source at 3.0" and 3.2" from the center of the galaxies, which could be off-center AGN. However, Monte Carlo simulations suggest that one of these sources could be the result of spatial coincidence with a background AGN. Therefore, we place an upper limit of $\lesssim0.5\%$ on the AGN occupation fraction of UDGs.

2004.11402

A missing outskirts problem?  Comparisons between stellar haloes in the Dragonfly Nearby Galaxies Survey and the TNG100 simulation

Merritt, et al

Low surface brightness galactic stellar halos provide a challenging but promising path towards unraveling the past assembly histories of individual galaxies. Here, we present detailed comparisons between the stellar halos of Milky Way-mass disk galaxies observed as part of the Dragonfly Nearby Galaxies Survey (DNGS) and stellar mass-matched galaxies in the TNG100 run of the IllustrisTNG project. We produce stellar mass maps as well as mock $g$ and $r$-band images for randomly oriented simulated galaxies, convolving the latter with the Dragonfly PSF and taking care to match the background noise, surface brightness limits and spatial resolution of DNGS. We measure azimuthally averaged stellar mass density and surface brightness profiles, and find that the DNGS galaxies generally have less stellar mass (or light) at large radii (>20 kpc) compared to their mass-matched TNG100 counterparts, and that simulated galaxies with similar surface density profiles tend to have low accreted mass fractions for their stellar mass. We explore potential solutions to this apparent "missing outskirts problem" by implementing several ad-hoc adjustments within TNG100 at the stellar particle level. Although we are unable to identify any single adjustment that fully reconciles the differences between the observed and simulated galaxy outskirts, we find that artificially delaying the disruption of satellite galaxies and reducing the spatial extent of in-situ stellar populations result in improved matches between the outer profile shapes and stellar halo masses, respectively. Further insight can be achieved with higher resolution simulations that are able to better resolve satellite accretion, and with larger samples of observed galaxies.

Day 1693

Thursday, Friday.

2004.10207
Hubble constant tension between CMB lensing and BAO measurements
Wu, Motloch, Hu, Raveri

We apply a tension metric $Q_\textrm{UDM}$, the update difference in mean parameters, to understand the source of the difference in the measured Hubble constant $H_0$ inferred with cosmic microwave background lensing measurements from the Planck satellite ($H_0=67.9^{+1.1}_{-1.3}\, \mathrm{km/s/Mpc}$) and from the South Pole Telescope ($H_0=72.0^{+2.1}_{-2.5}\, \mathrm{km/s/Mpc}$) when both are combined with baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements with priors on the baryon density (BBN). $Q_\textrm{UDM}$ isolates the relevant parameter directions for tension or concordance where the two data sets are both informative, and aids in the identification of subsets of data that source the observed tension. With $Q_\textrm{UDM}$, we uncover that the difference in $H_0$ is driven by the tension between Planck lensing and BAO+BBN, at probability-to-exceed of 6.6%. Most of this mild tension comes from the galaxy BAO measurements parallel to the line of sight. The redshift dependence of the parallel BAOs pulls both the matter density $\Omega_m$ and $H_0$ high in $\Lambda$CDM, but these parameter anomalies are usually hidden when the BAO measurements are combined with other cosmological data sets with much stronger $\Omega_m$ constraints.

2004.10213

Measuring star formation histories, distances, and metallicities with pixel color-magnitude diagrams II: applications to nearby elliptical galaxies

Cook, Conroy, van Dokkum

We present spatially-resolved measurements of star formation histories (SFHs), metallicities, and distances in three nearby elliptical galaxies and the bulge of M31 derived using the pixel color-magnitude diagram (pCMD) technique. We compute pCMDs from archival $\textit{HST}$ photometry of M87, M49, NGC 3377 and M31, and fit the data using the new code $\texttt{PCMDPy}$. We measure distances to each system that are accurate to $\sim 10\%$. The recovered non-parametric SFHs place reasonable ($\pm 1$ dex) constraints on the recent (< 2 Gyr) star formation in M31 and NGC 3377, both of which show evidence of inside-out growth. The SFHs in M87 and M49 are constrained only at the oldest ages. The pCMD technique is a promising new avenue for studying the evolutionary history of the nearby universe, and is highly complementary to existing stellar population modeling techniques.

2004.10296
Decrease in the brightness of the cosmic X-ray and soft gamma-ray background toward clusters of galaxies
Grebenev, Sunyaev

We show that Compton scattering by electrons of the hot intergalactic gas in galaxy clusters should lead to peculiar distortions of the cosmic background X-ray and soft gamma-ray radiation - an increase in its brightness at E<60-100 keV and a drop at higher energies. The distortions allow the most important cluster parameters to be measured. The spectral shape of the distortions and its dependence on the gas temperature, optical depth, and surface density distribution law have been studied using Monte Carlo computations and confirmed by analytical estimations. In the cluster frame the maximum of the background decrease due to the recoil effect occurs at ~500-600 keV. The photoionization of H- and He-like iron and nickel ions leads to additional distortions in the background spectrum - a strong absorption line with the threshold at ~9 keV (and also to an absorption jump at ~2 keV for cold clusters). The absorption of intrinsic thermal radiation from the cluster gas by these ions also leads to such lines. In nearby (z<1) clusters the line at ~2 keV is noticeably enhanced by absorption in the colder (~10^6 K) plasma of their peripheral (~3 Mpc) regions; moreover, the absorption line at ~1.3 keV splits off from it. The redshift of distant clusters shifts the absorption lines in the background spectrum (at ~2, ~9, and ~500 keV) to lower energies. Thus, in contrast to the microwave background scattering effect, this effect depends on the cluster redshift z, but in a very peculiar way. When observing clusters at z>1, the effect allows one to determine how the X-ray background evolved and how it was "gathered" with z. To detect the effect, the accuracy of measurements should reach ~0.1%. We consider the most promising clusters for observing the effect and discuss the techniques whereby the influence of the thermal gas radiation hindering the detection of background distortions should be minimal.

2004.10771

The ALPINE-ALMA [CII] survey: molecular gas budget in the Early Universe as traced by [CII]

Dessauges-Zavadsky, et al

The molecular gas content of normal galaxies at z>4 is poorly constrained, because the commonly used molecular gas tracers become hard to detect. We use the [CII]158um luminosity, recently proposed as a molecular gas tracer, to estimate the molecular gas content in a large sample of main-sequence star-forming galaxies at z=4.4-5.9, with a median stellar mass of 10^9.7 Msun, drawn from the ALMA Large Program to INvestigate [CII] at Early times (ALPINE) survey. The agreement between molecular gas masses derived from [CII] luminosity, dynamical mass, and rest-frame 850um luminosity, extrapolated from the rest-frame 158um continuum, supports [CII] as a reliable tracer of molecular gas in our sample. We find a continuous decline of the molecular gas depletion timescale from z=0 to z=5.9, which reaches a mean value of (4.6+/-0.8)x10^8 yr at z~5.5, only a factor of 2-3 shorter than in present-day galaxies. This suggests a mild enhancement of star formation efficiency toward high redshifts, unless the molecular gas fraction significantly increases. Our estimates show that the rise in molecular gas fraction as reported previously, flattens off above z~3.7 to achieve a mean value of 63%+/-3 over z=4.4-5.9. This redshift evolution of the gas fraction is in line with the one of the specific star formation rate. We use multi-epoch abundance matching to follow the gas fraction evolution over cosmic time of progenitors of z=0 Milky Way-like galaxies in 10^13 Msun halos and of more massive z=0 galaxies in 10^14 Msun halos. Interestingly, the former progenitors show a monotonic decrease of the gas fraction with cosmic time, while the latter show a constant gas fraction from z=5.9 to z~2 and a decrease at z<2. We discuss three possible effects, namely outflows, halt of gas supplying, and over-efficient star formation, which may jointly contribute to the gas fraction plateau of the latter massive galaxies.

2004.11328

Origin and evolution of the Galactic inventories of interstellar dust and its composition

Gupta, Sahijpal

Interstellar dust is a significant component of matter in the galaxies. The dust owns its origin and reprocessing in a wide range of astrophysical environments. In order to understand the origin and evolution of the distinct types of interstellar dust grains, we have attempted a comprehensive correlated study of the thermodynamics condensation of dust grains in distinct stellar environments with the Galactic chemical evolution of the Milky Way Galaxy. The Galaxy is evolved in terms of elemental evolution resulting from stellar nucleosynthetic contributions of several generations of stars. Based on the elemental composition of the evolving Galaxy, the relative abundances of the major constituents of interstellar dust are assessed. The major aim is to redistribute the various condensable elements at any epoch during the evolution of the Galaxy into various grain constituents and understand their abundance evolution based on a mass-balance formalism. We also performed thermodynamical equilibrium condensation calculations to understand the stellar origin of various grain constituents that could carry the isotopic signatures of the various stellar nucleosynthetic sources. This is perhaps a novel attempt to estimate the bulk dust mass budget in the evolving Galaxy. The normalized mass of the Galactic dust is predicted to decrease with the increase in distance from the Galactic centre. It increases over time. The supernovae SN Ia are predicted as the most prominent sources of Fe-dust mass, the supernovae SN II+Ib/c produces oxides and silicate dust mass, and the AGB stars contributes to carbonaceous dust mass.

Day 1692

Wednesday.

2004.09515
The effective halo model: creating a physical and accurate model of the matter power spectrum and cluster counts
Philcox, Spergel, Villaescusa-Navarro

We introduce a physically-motivated model of the matter power spectrum, based on the halo model and perturbation theory. This model achieves 1\% accuracy on all $k-$scales between $k=0.02h\,\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ to $k=1h\,\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$. Our key ansatz is that the number density of halos depends on the non-linear density contrast filtered on some unknown scale $R$. Using the Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structure to evaluate the two-halo term, we obtain a model for the power spectrum with only two fitting parameters: $R$ and the effective `sound speed', which encapsulates small-scale physics. This is tested with two suites of cosmological simulations across a broad range of cosmologies and found to be highly accurate. Due to its physical motivation, the statistics can be easily extended beyond the power spectrum; we additionally derive the one-loop covariance matrices of cluster counts and their combination with the matter power spectrum. This yields a significantly better fit to simulations than previous models, and includes a new model for super-sample effects, which is rigorously tested with separate universe simulations. At low redshift, we find a significant ($\sim 10\%$) exclusion covariance from accounting for the finite size of halos which has not previously been modeled. Such power spectrum and covariance models will enable joint analysis of upcoming large-scale structure surveys, gravitational lensing surveys and cosmic microwave background maps on scales down to the non-linear scale. We provide a publicly released Python code.

2004.09542

Propagating sample variance uncertainties in redshift calibration: simulations, theory and application to the COSMOS2015 data

Sánchez, Raveri, Alarcon, Bernstein

Cosmological analyses of galaxy surveys rely on knowledge of the redshift distribution of their galaxy sample. This is usually derived from a spectroscopic and/or many-band photometric calibrator survey of a small patch of sky. The uncertainties in the redshift distribution of the calibrator sample include a contribution from shot noise, or Poisson sampling errors, but, given the small volume they probe, they are dominated by sample variance introduced by large-scale structures. Redshift uncertainties have been shown to constitute one of the leading contributions to systematic uncertainties in cosmological inferences from weak lensing and galaxy clustering, and hence they must be propagated through the analyses. In this work, we study the effects of sample variance on small-area redshift surveys, from theory to simulations to the COSMOS2015 data set. We present a three-step Dirichlet method of resampling a given survey-based redshift calibration distribution to enable the propagation of both shot noise and sample variance uncertainties. The method can accommodate different levels of prior confidence on different redshift sources. This method can be applied to any calibration sample with known redshifts and phenotypes (i.e. cells in a self-organizing map, or some other way of discretizing photometric space), and provides a simple way of propagating prior redshift uncertainties into cosmological analyses. As a worked example, we apply the full scheme to the COSMOS2015 data set, for which we also present a new, principled SOM algorithm designed to handle noisy photometric data. We make available a catalog of the resulting resamplings of the COSMOS2015 galaxies.

2004.09572

Dark matter properties through cosmic history

Ilic, et al

We perform the first test of Dark Matter (DM) stress-energy evolution through cosmic history, using Cosmic Microwave Background measurements supplemented with Baryon Acoustic Oscillation data and the Hubble Space Telescope key project data. We constrain the DM equation of state (EoS) in 8 redshift bins, and its sound speed and (shear) viscosity in 9 redshift bins, finding no convincing evidence for non-$\Lambda$CDM values in any of the redshift bins. Despite this enlarged parameter space, the sound speed and viscosity are constrained relatively well at late times (due to the inclusion of CMB lensing), whereas the EoS is most strongly constrained around recombination. These results constrain for the first time the level of ''coldness'' required of DM across various cosmological epochs at both the background and perturbative levels. We show that simultaneously allowing time dependence for both the EoS and sound speed parameters shifts the posterior of the DM abundance before recombination to a higher value, whilst keeping the present day DM abundance similar to the $\Lambda$CDM value. This shifts the posterior for the present day Hubble constant compared to $\Lambda$CDM, suggesting that DM with time-dependent parameters is well-suited to explore possible solutions to persistent tensions within the $\Lambda$CDM model.

2004.09771

How magnetic activity alters what we learn from stellar spectra

Spina, et al

Magnetic fields and stellar spots can alter the equivalent widths of absorption lines in stellar spectra, varying during the activity cycle. This also influences the information that we derive through spectroscopic analysis. In this study we analyse high-resolution spectra of 211 Sun-like stars observed at different phases of their activity cycles, in order to investigate how stellar activity affects the spectroscopic determination of stellar parameters and chemical abundances. We observe that equivalent widths of lines can increase as a function of the activity index log R$^\prime_{\rm HK}$ during the stellar cycle, which also produces an artificial growth of the stellar microturbulence and a decrease in effective temperature and metallicity. This effect is visible for stars with activity indexes log R$^\prime_{\rm HK}$$\geq$$-$5.0 (i.e., younger than 4-5 Gyr) and it is more significant at higher activity levels. These results have fundamental implications on several topics in astrophysics that are discussed in the paper, including stellar nucleosynthesis, chemical tagging, the study of Galactic chemical evolution, chemically anomalous stars, the structure of the Milky Way disk, stellar formation rates, photoevaporation of circumstellar disks, and planet hunting.

2004.09961

The GBOT asteroid survey (First years: Jan. 2015 - May 2018)

Bouquillon, Souami

The GBOT group is in charge of the Ground Based Optical Tracking of the Gaia satellite. In concrete terms, since the launch of Gaia, our task is to take every night, using ground based medium-class telescopes, short sequences of $10$ or $20$ images of the Gaia satellite close to its meridian transit. For this purpose, we mainly use the VLT Survey Telescope and the Liverpool Telescope. In these images, taken close to the Sun's opposition - since Gaia is in L$_2$ - we observe many asteroids: between $30$ and $100$ asteroids every night, up to magnitude $22$. In order to extract the astrometric positions as well as the magnitudes of these asteroids, we have developed semi-automatic methods, strategies and tools tailored explicitly for this daily task. In only three and a half years of operation, this system has allowed us to send to the Minor Planet Center the position and the photometry for about $20,000$ asteroids, amongst which $9,000$ new objects. Here we describe all the aspects of the GBOT asteroid survey.

Day 1691

Tuesday.

2004.08397
The origin and evolution of Lyman-alpha Blobs in cosmological galaxy formation simulations
Kimock, et al

High-redshift Lyman-alpha blobs (LABs) are an enigmatic class of objects that have been the subject of numerous observational and theoretical investigations. It is of particular interest to determine the dominant power sources for the copious luminosity, as direct emission from HII regions, cooling gas, and fluorescence due to the presence of active galactic nuclei (AGN) can all contribute significantly. In this paper, we present the first theoretical model to consider all of these physical processes in an attempt to develop an evolutionary model for the origin of high-z LABs. This is achieved by combining a series of high-resolution cosmological zoom-in simulations with ionization and Lyman-alpha (Lya) radiative transfer models. We find that massive galaxies display a range of Lya luminosities and spatial extents (which strongly depend on the limiting surface brightness used) over the course of their lives, though regularly exhibit luminosities and sizes consistent with observed LABs. The model LABs are typically powered from a combination of recombination in star-forming galaxies, as well as cooling emission from gas associated with accretion. When AGN are included in the model, the fluorescence caused by AGN-driven ionization can be a significant contributor to the total Lya luminosity as well. We propose that the presence of an AGN may be predicted from the Gini coefficient of the blob's surface brightness. Within our modeled mass range, there are no obvious threshold physical properties that predict appearance of LABs, and only weak correlations of the luminosity with the physical properties of the host galaxy. This is because the emergent Lya luminosity from a system is a complex function of the gas temperature, ionization state, and Lya escape fraction.

2004.08502

On aging star clusters using red supergiants independent of the fraction of interacting binary stars

Elridge, et al

We use the Binary Population and Spectral Synthesis (BPASS) models to test the recent suggestion that red supergiants can provide an accurate age estimate of a co-eval stellar population that is unaffected by interacting binary stars. Ages are estimated by using both the minimum luminosity red supergiant and the mean luminosity of red supergiants in a cluster. We test these methods on a number of observed star clusters and find our results in agreement with previous estimates. Importantly we find the difference between the ages derived from stellar population models with and without a realistic population of interacting binary stars is only a few 100,000 years at most. We find that the mean luminosity of red supergiants in a cluster is the best method to determine the age of a cluster because it is based o the entire red supergiant population rather than using only the least luminous red supergiant.

2004.09077

On the role of reduced wind mass-loss rate in enabling exoplanets to shape planetary nebulae

Hegazi, Bear, Soker

We use the stellar evolution code MESA-binary and follow the evolution of six exoplanets to determine their potential role in the future evolution of their parent star on the red giant branch (RGB) and on the asymptotic giant branch (AGB). We limit this study to planets with orbits that have semi-major axis of 1AU<a<20AU, a high eccentricity, e>0.25, and having a parent star of mass M>1Mo. We find that the star HIP 75458 will engulf its planet HIP75458 b during its RGB phase. The planet will remove the envelope and terminate the RGB evolution, leaving a bare helium core of mass 0.4Mo that will evolve to form a helium white dwarf. Only in one system out of six, the planet beta Pic c will enter the envelope of its parent star during the AGB phase. For that to occur, we have to reduce the wind mass-loss rate by a factor of about four from its commonly used value. This strengthens an early conclusion, which was based on exoplanets with circular orbits, that states that to have a non-negligible fraction of AGB stars that engulf planets we should consider lower wind mass-loss rates of isolated AGB stars (before they are spun-up by a companion). Such an engulfed planet might lead to the shaping of the AGB mass-loss geometry to form an elliptical planetary nebula.

2004.09401

Galaxy cluster contribution to the diffuse extragalactic ultraviolet background

Welch, McCandiss, Coe

The diffuse ultraviolet background radiation has been mapped over most of the sky with 2\arcmin \ resolution using data from the \textit{GALEX} survey. We utilize this map to study the correlation between the UV background and clusters of galaxies discovered via the Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect in the \textit{Planck} survey. We use only high Galactic latitude ($|b| > 60^{\circ} $) galaxy clusters to avoid contamination by Galactic foregrounds, and we only analyze clusters with a measured redshift. This leaves us with a sample of 142 clusters over the redshift range $0.02 \leq z \leq 0.72$, which we further subdivide into four redshift bins. In analysing our stacked samples binned by redshift, we find evidence for a central excess of UV background light compared to local backgrounds for clusters with $z<0.3$. We then stacked these $z<0.3$ clusters to find a statistically significant excess of $12 \pm 2.3$ photon cm$^{-2}$ s${-1}$ sr$^{-1}$ \AA $^{-1}$ \ over the median of $\sim 380$ photon cm$^{-2}$ s${-1}$ sr$^{-1}$ \AA $^{-1}$ \ measured around random blank fields. We measure the stacked radial profile of these clusters, and find that the excess UV radiation decays to the level of the background at a radius of $\sim 1$ Mpc, roughly consistent with the maximum radial extent of the clusters. Analysis of possible physical processes contributing to the excess UV brightness indicates that non-thermal emission from relativistic electrons in the intracluster medium and faint, unresolved UV emission from cluster member galaxies and intracluster light are likely the dominant contributors.

Day 1690

Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Monday.

2004.06113
The molecular cloud lifecycle
Chevance, et al

Giant molecular clouds (GMCs) and their stellar offspring are the building blocks of galaxies. The physical characteristics of GMCs and their evolution are tightly connected to galaxy evolution. The macroscopic properties of the interstellar medium propagate into the properties of GMCs condensing out of it, with correlations between e.g. the galactic and GMC scale gas pressures, surface densities and volume densities. That way, the galactic environment sets the initial conditions for star formation within GMCs. After the onset of massive star formation, stellar feedback from e.g. photoionisation, stellar winds, and supernovae eventually contributes to dispersing the parent cloud, depositing energy, momentum and metals into the surrounding medium, thereby changing the properties of galaxies. This cycling of matter between gas and stars, governed by star formation and feedback, is therefore a major driver of galaxy evolution. Much of the recent debate has focused on the durations of the various evolutionary phases that constitute this cycle in galaxies, and what these can teach us about the physical mechanisms driving the cycle. We review results from observational, theoretical, and numerical work to build a dynamical picture of the evolutionary lifecycle of GMC evolution, star formation, and feedback in galaxies.

2004.06396

Atmospheric characterization via broadband color filters on the PLAnetary Transits and Oscillations of stars (PLATO) mission

Grenfell, et al

We assess broadband color filters for the two fast cameras on the PLAnetary Transits and Oscillations (PLATO) of stars space mission with respect to exoplanetary atmospheric characterization. We focus on Ultra Hot Jupiters and Hot Jupiters placed 25pc and 100pc away from the Earth and low mass low density planets placed 10pc and 25pc away. Our analysis takes as input literature values for the difference in transit depth between the broadband lower (500 to 675nm) wavelength interval (hereafter referred to as blue) and the upper (675-1125nm) broadband wavelength interval (hereafter referred to as red) for transmission, occultation and phase curve analyses. Planets orbiting main sequence central stars with stellar classes F, G, K and M are investigated. We calculate the signal-to-noise ratio with respect to photon and instrument noise for detecting the difference in transit depth between the two spectral intervals. Results suggest that bulk atmospheric composition and planetary geometric albedos could be detected for (Ultra) Hot Jupiters up to about 100pc (about 25pc) with strong (moderate) Rayleigh extinction. Phase curve information could be extracted for Ultra Hot Jupiters orbiting K and G dwarf stars up to 25pc away. For low mass low density planets, basic atmospheric types (primary and water-dominated) and the presence of sub-micron hazes in the upper atmosphere could be distinguished for up to a handful of cases up to about 10pc.

2004.06457

A null test of the equivalence principle using relativistic effects in galaxy surveys

Bonvin, et al

The weak equivalence principle is one of the cornerstone of general relativity. Its validity has been tested with impressive precision in the Solar System, with experiments involving baryonic matter and light. However, on cosmological scales and when dark matter is concerned, the validity of this principle is still unknown. In this paper we construct a null test that probes the validity of the equivalence principle for dark matter. Our test has the strong advantage that it can be applied on data without relying on any modelling of the theory of gravity. It involves a combination of redshift-space distortions and relativistic effects in the galaxy number-count fluctuation, that vanishes if and only if the equivalence principle holds. We show that the null test is very insensitive to typical uncertainties in other cosmological parameters, including the magnification bias parameter, and to non-linear effects, making this a robust null test for modified gravity.

2004.07264

Separating accretion and mergers in the cosmic growth of black holes with X-ray and gravitational wave observations

Paucci, Loeb

Black holes across a broad range of masses play a key role in the evolution of galaxies. The initial seeds of black holes formed at $z \sim 30$ and grew over cosmic time by gas accretion and mergers. Using observational data for quasars and theoretical models for the hierarchical assembly of dark matter halos, we study the relative importance of gas accretion and mergers for black hole growth, as a function of redshift ($0<z<10$) and black hole mass ($ 10^3 \, \mathrm{M_{\odot}} < M_{\bullet} < 10^{10} \, \mathrm{M_{\odot}}$). We find that: (i) growth by accretion is dominant in a large fraction of the parameter space, especially at $M_{\bullet} > 10^8 \, \mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ and $z>6$; (ii) growth by mergers is dominant at $M_{\bullet} < 10^5 \, \mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ and $z>5.5$, and at $M_{\bullet} > 10^8 \, \mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ and $z<2$. As the growth channel has direct implications for the black hole spin (with gas accretion leading to higher spin values), we test our model against $\sim 20$ robust spin measurements available thus far. As expected, the spin tends to decline towards the merger-dominated regime, thereby supporting our model. The next generation of X-ray and gravitational wave observatories (e.g. Lynx, Athena and LISA) will map out populations of black holes up to very high redshift ($z\sim 20)$, covering the parameter space investigated here in almost its entirety. Their data will be instrumental to providing a clear picture of how black holes grew across cosmic time.

2004.07256

Quantifying resolution in cosmological N-body simulations using self-similarity

Joyce, Garrison, Einstenstein

We demonstrate that testing for self-similarity in scale-free simulations provides an excellent tool to quantify the resolution at small scales of cosmological N-body simulations. Analysing two-point correlation functions measured in simulations using ABACUS, we show how observed deviations from self-similarity reveal the range of time and distance scales in which convergence is obtained. While the well-converged scales show accuracy below 1 percent, our results show that, with a small force softening length, the spatial resolution is essentially determined by the mass resolution. At later times the lower cut-off scale on convergence evolves in comoving units as $a^{-1/2}$ ($a$ being the scale factor), consistent with a hypothesis that it is set by two-body collisionality. A corollary of our results is that N-body simulations, particularly at high red-shift, contain a significant spatial range in which clustering appears converged with respect to the time-stepping and force softening but has not actually converged to the physical continuum result. The method developed can be applied to determine the resolution of any clustering statistic and extended to infer resolution limits for non-scale-free simulations.

2004.07273

Measuring distances to low-luminosity galaxies using surface brightness fluctuations

Greco, van Dokkum, et al

We present an in-depth study of surface brightness fluctuations (SBFs) in low-luminosity stellar systems. Using the MIST models, we compute theoretical predictions for absolute SBF magnitudes in the LSST, HST, and proposed WFIRST filter systems. We compare our calculations to the observed SBF magnitudes of dwarf galaxies that have independent distance measurements from the tip of the red giant branch method. Consistent with previous studies, we find that single-age population models show excellent agreement with the observed SBF-color relation of low-mass galaxies with $0.5 \lesssim g - i \lesssim 0.9$. For bluer galaxies, the observed relation is better fit by models with composite stellar populations. To study SBF recovery from low-luminosity galaxies, we perform detailed image simulations in which we inject fully populated model galaxies into deep ground-based images from real observations. We demonstrate that measurements of SBF magnitudes from these simulated data correspond to the theoretical values with negligible bias ($\lesssim0.01$ mag). We then use the simulations to show that LSST will provide data of sufficient quality and depth to measure SBF distances with precisions of ${\sim}10$-20% to ultra-faint $\left(\mathrm{10^4 \leq M_\star/M_\odot \leq 10^5}\right)$ and low-mass classical ($\leq10^7$ M$_\odot$) dwarf galaxies out to ${\sim}4$ Mpc and ${\sim}25$ Mpc, respectively, within the first few years of its deep-wide-fast survey. Many systematic uncertainties remain, including an irreducible "sampling scatter" in the SBFs of ultra-faint dwarfs due to their undersampled stellar mass functions. We nonetheless conclude that SBFs in the new generation of wide-field imaging surveys have the potential to play a critical role in the efficient confirmation and characterization of dwarf galaxies in the nearby universe.

2004.07491

Protostellar accretion and the cosmological lithium problem

Cassisi, et al

The cosmological lithium problem, i.e. the discrepancy between the lithium abundance predicted by the Big Bang Nucleosynthesis and the one observed for the stars of the "Spite plateau", is one of the long standing problems of modern astrophysics. A possible astrophysical solution involves lithium burning due to protostellar mass accretion on Spite plateau stars. In present work, for the first time, we investigate with accurate evolutionary computations the impact of accretion on the lithium evolution in the metal-poor regime, that relevant for stars in the Spite plateau.

2004.07504

Localizing transformations of the galaxy-galaxy lensing observable

Park, Rozo, Krause

Modern cosmological analyses of galaxy-galaxy lensing face a theoretical systematic effect arising from the non-locality of the observed galaxy-galaxy lensing signal. Because the predicted tangential shear signal at a given separation depends on the physical modeling on all scales internal to that separation, systematic uncertainties in the modeling of non-linear small scales are propagated outwards to larger scales. Even in the absence of other limiting factors, this systematic effect alone can necessitate conservative small-scale cuts, resulting in significant losses of information in the tangential shear data vector. We construct a simple linear transformation of the observable that removes this non-locality, enabling more aggressive small-scale cuts for a given theoretical model. Our modified galaxy-galaxy lensing observable makes it possible to include observations on significantly smaller scales than those under the standard approach in cosmological analyses. More importantly, it ensures that the cosmological signal contained within the observable is exclusively drawn from well-understood physical scales.

2004.07599

Low threshold acquisition controller for Skipper CCDs

Cancelo, et al

The development of the Skipper Charge Coupled Devices (Skipper-CCDs) has been a major technological breakthrough for sensing very weak ionizing particles. The sensor allows to reach the ultimate sensitivity of silicon material as a charge signal sensor by unambiguous determination of the charge signal collected by each cell or pixel, even for single electron-hole pair ionization. Extensive use of the technology was limited by the lack of specific equipment to operate the sensor at the ultimate performance. In this work a simple, single-board Skipper-CCD controller is presented, aimed for the operation of the detector in high sensitivity scientific applications. The article describes the main components and functionality of the Low Threshold Acquisition (LTA) together with experimental results when connected to a Skipper-CCD sensor. Measurements show unprecedented deep sub-electron noise of 0.039 e$^-_{rms}$/pix for 5000 pixel measurements.

2004.07621

Modeling the spectrum and composition of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays with two populations of extragalactic sources

Das, et al

We fit the ultrahigh-energy cosmic-ray (UHECR, $E\gtrsim0.1$ EeV) spectrum and composition data from the Pierre Auger Observatory at energies $E\gtrsim5\cdot10^{18}$ eV, i.e., beyond the ankle using two populations of astrophysical sources. One population, accelerating dominantly protons ($^1$H), extends up to the highest observed energies with maximum energy close to the GZK cutoff and injection spectral index near the Fermi acceleration model; while another population accelerates light-to-heavy nuclei ($^4$He, $^{14}$N, $^{28}$Si, $^{56}$Fe) with a relatively low rigidity cutoff and hard injection spectrum. A single extragalactic homogeneous source population with a mixed composition ($^1$H, $^4$He, $^{14}$N, $^{28}$Si, $^{56}$Fe) at injection leads to zero $^1$H abundance fraction, while fitting the spectrum at energies $\gtrsim 5\cdot10^{18}$ eV. With our choice of exponential cutoff power-law injection spectrum and \textsc{sybill2.3c} hadronic interaction model, we investigate the effects on composition predictions and other UHECR source parameters, as we go from a single-population to two-population model. For the latter, a non-zero $^1$H abundance is found to be inevitable at the highest energies, and a significant improvement in the combined fit is noted on addition of a pure-proton spectrum. We vary the proton injection index to find the best-fit parameter values of the two-population model, and constrain the maximum allowed proton fraction at the highest-energy bin within 3.5$\sigma$ statistical significance. We compute expected cosmogenic neutrino flux in such a hybrid source population scenario and discuss possibilities to detect these neutrinos by upcoming detectors to shed light on the sources of UHECRs.

2004.07768

HST/FGS trigonometric parallaxes of M-dwarf eclipsing binaries

van Belle, et al

Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Fine Guidance Sensor (FGS) trigonometric parallax observations were obtained to directly determine distances to five nearby M-dwarf / M-dwarf eclipsing binary systems. These systems are intrinsically interesting as benchmark systems for establishing basic physical parameters for low-mass stars, such as luminosity L, and radius R. HST/FGS distances are also one of the few direct checks on Gaia trigonometric parallaxes, given the comparable sensitivity in both magnitude limit and determination of parallactic angles. A spectral energy distribution (SED) fit of each system's blended flux output was carried out, allowing for estimation of the bolometric flux from the primary and secondary components of each system. From the stellar M, L, and R values, the low-mass star relationships between L and M, and R and M, are compared against idealized expectations for such stars. An examination on the inclusion of these close M-dwarf/M-dwarf pairs in higher-order common proper motion (CPM) pairs is analysed; each of the 5 systems has indications of being part of a CPM system. Unexpected distances on interesting objects found within the grid of parallactic reference stars are also presented, including a nearby M dwarf and a white dwarf.

2004.07811

Minimising the impact of scale-dependent galaxy bias on the joint cosmological analysis of large scale structures

Asgari, et al

We present a mitigation strategy to reduce the impact of non-linear galaxy bias on the joint `$3 \times 2 $pt' cosmological analysis of weak lensing and galaxy surveys. The $\Psi$-statistics that we adopt are based on Complete Orthogonal Sets of E/B Integrals (COSEBIs). As such they are designed to minimise the contributions to the observable from the smallest physical scales where models are highly uncertain. We demonstrate that $\Psi$-statistics carry the same constraining power as the standard two-point galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing statistics, but are significantly less sensitive to scale-dependent galaxy bias. Using two galaxy bias models, motivated by halo-model fits to data and simulations, we quantify the error in a standard $3 \times 2$pt analysis where constant galaxy bias is assumed. Even when adopting conservative angular scale cuts, that degrade the overall cosmological parameter constraints, we find of order $1 \sigma$ biases for Stage III surveys on the cosmological parameter $S_8 = \sigma_8(\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3)^{\alpha}$. This arises from a leakage of the smallest physical scales to all angular scales in the standard two-point correlation functions. In contrast, when analysing $\Psi$-statistics under the same approximation of constant galaxy bias, we show that the bias on the recovered value for $S_8$ can be decreased by a factor of $\sim 2$, with less conservative scale cuts. Given the challenges in determining accurate galaxy bias models in the highly non-linear regime, we argue that $3 \times 2$pt analyses should move towards new statistics that are less sensitive to the smallest physical scales.

2004.07907

Supermassive black holes as possible sources of ultra high energy cosmic rays

Tursunov, et al

Production and acceleration mechanisms of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) of energy $>10^{20}$eV, clearly beyond the GZK-cutoff limit remain unclear that points to exotic nature of the phenomena. Recent observations of extragalactic neutrino may indicate the source of UHECRs being an extragalactic supermassive black hole (SMBH). We demonstrate that ultra-efficient energy extraction from rotating SMBH driven by the magnetic Penrose process (MPP) could indeed foot the bill. We envision ionization of neutral particles, such as neutron beta-decay, skirting close to the black hole horizon that energizes protons to over $10^{20}$eV for SMBH of mass $10^9 M_{\odot}$ and magnetic field of strength $10^4$G. Applied to Galactic center SMBH we have proton energy of order $\approx 10^{15.6}$eV that coincides with the knee of the cosmic ray spectra. We show that large $\gamma_z$ factors of high-energy particles along the escaping directions occur only in the presence of induced charge of the black hole that is known as the Wald charge in the case of uniform magnetic field. It is remarkable that the process neither requires extended acceleration zone, nor fine-tuning of accreting matter parameters. Further, this leads to certain verifiable constraints on SMBH's mass and magnetic field strength as UHECRs sources. This clearly makes ultra-efficient regime of MPP one of the most promising mechanisms for fueling UHECRs powerhouse.

2004.07951

Measuring fluxes of meteor showers with the NASA all-sky fireball network

Ehlert, et al

We present an algorithm developed to measure the fluxes of major meteor showers as observed in NASA's All-Sky Fireball Network cameras. Measurements of fluxes from the All-Sky cameras not only improve the Meteoroid Environment Office's (MEO's) ability to provide accurate risk assessments from major showers, but also allows the mass distribution of meteoroids within the shower to be constrained. This algorithm accounts for the shower-specific and event-specific exposure time and collecting area of the sky for nights where sufficiently large samples of shower meteors ($\sim 30$ or more from the shower) are observed. The fluxes derived from the All-Sky Fireball Network for the 2015 Geminid, 2016 Perseid and Quadrantid, 2017 Orionid, and 2018 Leonid shower peaks are calculated. All five of these shower fluxes show excellent agreement with expectations from independent measurements at different mass and luminosity limits. For four of these five showers, the measured mass indices are significantly shallower than what is currently assumed by the NASA Meteoroid Environment Office's (MEO's) annual meteor shower forecast. A direct comparison between forecasted and measured fluxes at limiting masses of $\sim 1 \thinspace \mathrm{g}$ shows good agreement for the three showers for which the observations took place near their peak activity.

2004.08026

Pixel-based spectral characterization of mid-infrared Is array detectors for astronomical observations in space

Tsuchikawa, et al

Mid-infrared (IR) array detectors have been used for astronomical observations in space. However, the uniformities of their spectral response curves have not been investigated in detail, the understanding of which is important for spectroscopic observations using large array formats. We characterize the spectral responses of all the pixels in IR array detectors using a Fourier transform infrared spectrometer and cryogenic optics for measurements at high signal-to-noise ratios. We measured the spectral responses of the Si:As impurity band conduction (IBC) array, a flight back-up detector for AKARI/IRC. As a result, we find that the Si:As array has intrinsic variations in the spectral response along the row and column directions of the array. We also find that the cutoff wavelength of the Si:As IBC array depends on the intensity of the incident light.

2004.08137

Using all-sky optical observations for automated orbit determination and prediction for satellites in Low Earth Orbit

Wijnen, et al

We have used an existing, robotic, multi-lens, all-sky camera system, coupled to a dedicated data reduction pipeline, to automatically determine orbital parameters of satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Each of the fixed cameras has a Field of View of 53 x 74 degrees, while the five cameras combined cover the entire sky down to 20 degrees from the horizon. Each of the cameras takes an image every 6.4 seconds, after which the images are automatically processed and stored. We have developed an automated data reduction pipeline that recognizes satellite tracks, to pixel level accuracy ($\sim$ 0.02 degrees), and uses their endpoints to determine the orbital elements in the form of standardized Two Line Elements (TLEs). The routines, that use existing algorithms such as the Hough transform and the Ransac method, can be used on any optical dataset. For a satellite with an unknown TLE, we need at least two overflights to accurately predict the next one. Known TLEs can be refined with every pass to improve collision detections or orbital decay predictions, for example. For our current data analysis we have been focusing on satellites in LEO, where we are able to recover between 50% and 80% of the known overpasses during twilight. We have been able to detect LEO satellites down to 7th visual magnitude. Higher objects, up to geosynchronous orbit, were visually observed, but are currently not being automatically picked up by our reduction pipeline. We expect that with further improvements to our data reduction, and potentially with longer integration times and/or different optics, the instrumental set-up can be used for tracking a significant fraction of satellites up to geosynchronous orbit.

Day 1689

Tuesday.

2004.05271
Cosmology with the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope -- Multi-Probe Strategies
EIfler, et al

We simulate the scientific performance of the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) High Latitude Survey (HLS) on dark energy and modified gravity. The 1.6 year HLS Reference survey is currently envisioned to image 2000 deg$^2$ in multiple bands to a depth of $\sim$26.5 in Y, J, H and to cover the same area with slit-less spectroscopy beyond z=3. The combination of deep, multi-band photometry and deep spectroscopy will allow scientists to measure the growth and geometry of the Universe through a variety of cosmological probes (e.g., weak lensing, galaxy clusters, galaxy clustering, BAO, Type Ia supernova) and, equally, it will allow an exquisite control of observational and astrophysical systematic effects. In this paper we explore multi-probe strategies that can be implemented given WFIRST's instrument capabilities. We model cosmological probes individually and jointly and account for correlated systematics and statistical uncertainties due to the higher order moments of the density field. We explore different levels of observational systematics for the WFIRST survey (photo-z and shear calibration) and ultimately run a joint likelihood analysis in N-dim parameter space. We find that the WFIRST reference survey alone (no external data sets) can achieve a standard dark energy FoM of >300 when including all probes. This assumes no information from external data sets and realistic assumptions for systematics. Our study of the HLS reference survey should be seen as part of a future community driven effort to simulate and optimize the science return of WFIRST.

2004.05618

Noise from undetected sources in Dark Energy Survey images

Eckert, Bernstein, et al

For ground-based optical imaging with current CCD technology, the Poisson fluctuations in source and sky background photon arrivals dominate the noise budget and are readily estimated. Another component of noise, however, is the signal from the undetected population of stars and galaxies. Using injection of artificial galaxies into images, we demonstrate that the measured variance of galaxy moments (used for weak gravitational lensing measurements) in Dark Energy Survey (DES) images is significantly in excess of the Poisson predictions, by up to 30\%, and that the background sky levels are overestimated by current software. By cross-correlating distinct images of "empty" sky regions, we establish that there is a significant image noise contribution from undetected static sources (US), which on average are mildly resolved at DES resolution. Treating these US as a stationary noise source, we compute a correction to the moment covariance matrix expected from Poisson noise. The corrected covariance matrix matches the moment variances measured on the injected DES images to within 5\%. Thus we have an empirical method to statistically account for US in weak lensing measurements, rather than requiring extremely deep sky simulations. We also find that local sky determinations can remove the bias in flux measurements, at a small penalty in additional, but quantifiable, noise.

Day 1688

Monday.

2004.04833
2D-FFTLog: efficient computation of real space covariance matrices for galaxy clustering and weak lensing
Fnag, Eifler, Krause

Accurate covariance matrices for two-point functions are critical for inferring cosmological parameters in likelihood analyses of large-scale structure surveys. Among various approaches to obtaining the covariance, analytic computation is much faster and less noisy than estimation from data or simulations. However, the transform of covariances from Fourier space to real space involves integrals with two Bessel integrals, which are numerically slow and easily affected by numerical uncertainties. Inaccurate covariances may lead to significant errors in the inference of the cosmological parameters. In this paper, we introduce a 2D-FFTLog algorithm for efficient, accurate and numerically stable computation of non-Gaussian real space covariances. The 2D-FFTLog algorithm is easily extended to perform real space bin-averaging. We apply the algorithm to the covariances for galaxy clustering and weak lensing for a DES Y3-like and an LSST Y1-like survey, and demonstrate that for both surveys, our algorithm can produce numerically stable angular bin-averaged covariances at the flat sky limit, which are sufficiently accurate for inferring cosmological parameters.

2004.05016

Can a conditioning on stellar mass explain the mutual information between morphology and environment?

Bhattacharjee, et al

Recent studies with SDSS have shown that a statistically significant non-zero mutual information between morphology and environment persists upto several tens of Mpc. It is important to understand the origin of these non-zero mutual information. Galaxies in different environments acquire their stellar mass through accretion and merger and the stellar mass function of galaxies is known to depend on both environment and morphology. Naturally, stellar mass can be an important link between morphology and environment which may explain the non-zero mutual information between the two. Measuring the mutual information between morphology and environment by conditioning the stellar mass would allow us to test this possibility. We compute the mutual information between morphology and environment by conditioning the stellar mass in a volume limited and stellar mass limited sample from SDSS DR16 and find a non-zero conditional mutual information throughout the entire length scales probed. The results suggest that only environmental and morphology dependence of stellar mass are inadequate in explaining the observed mutual information between morphology and environment. We compare the results with two semi analytic models implemented on the Millennium simulation. The predictions of the semi-analytic models are in fairly good agreement with the SDSS observations on smaller length scales but are noticeably smaller on larger length scales.

Day 1687

Friday.

2004.04165
Distributed peer review enhanced with natural language processing and machine learning
Kerzendorf, Patat, et al

While ancient scientists often had patrons to fund their work, peer review of proposals for the allocation of resources is a foundation of modern science. A very common method is that proposals are evaluated by a small panel of experts (due to logistics and funding limitations) nominated by the grant-giving institutions. The expert panel process introduces several issues - most notably: 1) biases introduced in the selection of the panel. 2) experts have to read a very large number of proposals. Distributed Peer Review promises to alleviate several of the described problems by distributing the task of reviewing among the proposers. Each proposer is given a limited number of proposals to review and rank. We present the result of an experiment running a machine-learning enhanced distributed peer review process for allocation of telescope time at the European Southern Observatory. In this work, we show that the distributed peer review is statistically the same as a `traditional' panel, that our machine learning algorithm can predict expertise of reviewers with a high success rate, and we find that seniority and reviewer expertise have an influence on review quality. The general experience has been overwhelmingly praised from the participating community (using an anonymous feedback mechanism).

2004.04253
Extragalactic cosmic rays diffusing from two populations of sources
Mollerach, Roulet

We consider the possibility of explaining the observed spectrum and composition of the cosmic rays with energies above $10^{17}$ eV in terms of two different extragalactic populations of sources in the presence of a turbulent intergalactic magnetic field (including also a fading Galactic cosmic-ray component). The populations are considered to be the superposition of different nuclear species having rigidity dependent spectra. The first extragalactic population is dominant in the energy range $10^{17}$ to $10^{18}$ eV and consists of sources having a relatively large density ($> 10^{-3}$ Mpc$^{-3}$) and a steep spectrum. The second extragalactic population dominates the cosmic ray flux above few EeV, it has a harder spectral slope and has a high-energy cutoff at few $Z$ EeV (where $eZ$ is the associated cosmic ray charge). This population has a lower density of sources ($<10^{-4}$ Mpc$^{-3}$), so that the typical intersource separation is larger than few tens of Mpc, being significantly affected by a magnetic horizon effect that strongly suppresses its flux for energies below $\sim Z$ EeV. We discuss how this scenario could be reconciled with the values of the cosmic-ray source spectral indices that are expected to result from the diffusive shock acceleration mechanism.

2004.04615

Cross-matching of OGLE III and GAIA catalogues: investigation of dark-lens microlensing candidates

Dehghani, Rahvar

In this work, we use $13$ microlensing candidates with dark lenses from OGLE III catalogue \citep{2016MNRAS.458.3012W} and cross-match them with GAIA catalogue. We identify the microlensing source stars in GAIA catalogue by comparing the coordinate and the magnitude of stars and use the proper motion and the parallax parameters of the source stars. Combining with the microlensing light curves as well as microlensing parallax effect, we determine the mass and the distance of lenses from Earth. We conclude that the lens of some of microlensing events can be a blackhole.

2004.04702

Cosmology with the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope -- Synergies with the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and TIme

Eifler, et al

We explore synergies between the space-based Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) and the ground-based Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). In particular, we consider a scenario where the currently envisioned survey strategy for WFIRST's High Latitude Survey (HLS), i.e., 2000 square degrees in four narrow photometric bands is altered in favor of a strategy that combines rapid coverage of the LSST area (to full LSST depth) in one band. We find that a 5-month WFIRST survey in the W-band can cover the full LSST survey area providing high-resolution imaging for >95% of the LSST Year 10 gold galaxy sample. We explore a second, more ambitious scenario where WFIRST spends 1.5 years covering the LSST area. For this second scenario we quantify the constraining power on dark energy equation of state parameters from a joint weak lensing and galaxy clustering analysis, and compare it to an LSST-only survey and to the Reference WFIRST HLS survey. Our survey simulations are based on the WFIRST exposure time calculator and redshift distributions from the CANDELS catalog. Our statistical uncertainties account for higher-order correlations of the density field, and we include a wide range of systematic effects, such as uncertainties in shape and redshift measurements, and modeling uncertainties of astrophysical systematics, such as galaxy bias, intrinsic galaxy alignment, and baryonic physics. Assuming the 5-month WFIRST wide scenario, we find a significant increase in constraining power for the joint LSST+WFIRST wide survey compared to LSST Y10 (FoM(Wwide)= 2.4 FoM(LSST)) and compared to LSST+WFIRST HLS (FoM(Wwide})= 5.5 FoM(HLS)).